A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
